Open Book Props

The Problem

The sports prediction industry has a trust crisis. Most services delete losses, inflate records, use misleading math, and charge premium prices for coin-flip results. Anyone can start an advisory service with fabricated records and zero accountability.

Our Approach

Open Book Props is built on one principle: radical transparency. Every prediction is cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) and timestamped before the game starts. We show every win and every loss. Our complete track record is public and independently verifiable.

We don't promise 70% win rates (mathematically near-impossible over a large sample). We promise honest records and disciplined value-finding. Professional sports bettors sustain 4-10% ROI — and that's exceptional. We set realistic expectations and let our verified results speak for themselves.

How It Works

Our AI model is an ensemble of XGBoost and calibrated Logistic Regression, trained on historical NBA player performance data. We focus on player props (points, rebounds, assists, 3-pointers, and PTS+REB+AST combos) because these markets are less efficiently priced than spreads and totals.

We don't predict every game. We only surface picks where our model finds a meaningful edge (10%+) over the bookmaker's implied probability. This typically means 3-8 picks per day — quality over quantity.

The Honest Math

Responsible Gambling

Sports betting involves risk. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Our predictions are informational tools — not guarantees. Even the best models have losing streaks. We encourage disciplined bankroll management and treat betting as entertainment, not income.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700 (available 24/7).